Labourhome - Stories by the listener http://www.labourhome.org/ Back to the roots... en-us Copyright 2007 - LabourHome.org Tue Dec 2 03:08:24 2008 Labourhome Labourhome Labourhome http://www.labourhome.org/favicon.ico http://www.labourhome.org/ [Blogs] Cameron can't win on yesterday's performance http://www.labourhome.org/story/2008/5/2/101659/4492 I don't mind David Cameron getting over-confident and bragging at the 19th hole after yesterday's results outside London. On the current estimate of share of the vote outside London, the Tories achieved a 4.5% swing over the 2004 results in the same seats (Tories up 7, Labour down 2).  Looks good for DC.

But let's put that swing into the Electoral Calculus predictor, which seems quite sophisticated, and see what it does to the 2005 General Election result.  

Tap, tap>

National Prediction: CON short 36 of majority

          2005%      seats      predicted %      predicted seats

CON    33.24%     208          40.24%           290

LAB     36.21%     347          34.20%           282

LIB      22.65%       66           20.64%           48



Yesterday's set of councils has always been better for the Tories than the seats that come up in other years. After winning these councils in 2004 by 37% to Labour's 26%, the press said Labour was on course to lose big at the General Election. A year later the Tories fell back to 32.4% against Labour's 35.2% and TB got his historic third term, a swing back to Labour of 7% over the 2004 council elections.

To win a Parliamentary majority, Cameron needs a swing of 7% plus over the 2005 General Election result.

Projections on the new boundaries say the Conservatives could deprive Labour of an overall majority with a swing of 2%.

But Cameron needs to do much better than he did yesterday to reach Downing Street.

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